Wallet digest

active

Activity score

54/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

122

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-789.25

Realised

$-20.14

Win rate

61%

23 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 122

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET
1861 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-20.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET
406 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-40.21
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?
241 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-6.61
BAHRAIN
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain
162 shares @ 45.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-73.72
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
SURREY
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent
100 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-7.47
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET
100 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET
100 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-11.33
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$3.23Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$0.00Jun 26, 21:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$4.50Jun 26, 21:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET$4.13Jun 26, 21:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET$7.61Jun 26, 21:11 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$8.17Jun 26, 21:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$7.44Jun 26, 20:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.69Jun 26, 20:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$0.93Jun 26, 20:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$3.75Jun 26, 20:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$4.30Jun 26, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$3.10Jun 26, 20:27 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$2.69Jun 26, 20:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$5.79Jun 26, 20:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$6.40Jun 26, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.75Jun 26, 20:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$3.80Jun 26, 20:13 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.14Jun 26, 20:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.25Jun 26, 20:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.62Jun 26, 20:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

61% win rate over 23 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity45 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence77 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry77 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $3.94
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 25, 19:24 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 23 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:02:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data