0x76c4915dd953501439c6f60d711fa564aa7145c4
0x76c4915dd953501439c6f60d711fa564aa7145c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
142
Open notional
$2.12
Total PnL
$-557.29
Realised
$3.29
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 142- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 17?
2 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$2.12
$0.42
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
24 shares @ 35.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-8.47
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
23 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.34
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
21 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.63
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
20 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.71
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
19 shares @ 51.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
18 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
17 shares @ 78.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-13.41
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
15 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
15 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24?$1.00May 24, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?$1.09May 24, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24?$5.82May 24, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24?$3.20May 24, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?$3.84May 24, 08:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23?$0.01May 24, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 24?$4.14May 23, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?$5.58May 23, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?$3.49May 23, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23?$4.96May 23, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 23?$4.13May 23, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24?$2.91May 23, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 23?$0.61May 23, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 23?$3.05May 23, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 23?$3.84May 23, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 24?$3.26May 23, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 24?$0.42May 23, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23?$4.20May 23, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23?$4.14May 23, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23?$0.64May 23, 17:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 05:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 16:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.