Spirited-Steak
0x76d4145ef9368f009f6f83348963c1cc00162a7f
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$1.57
Total PnL
$-37.98
Realised
$10.29
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
57 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.77
$-0.95
- YES
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
7 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 28?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 28?
2294 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.29
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 79 and 80 million views on day 5?
2219 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 3?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$1.72Jun 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.00Jun 15, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?$1.86May 19, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?$0.85May 15, 23:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?$0.21May 14, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?$1.34May 14, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$0.80May 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?$0.27May 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?$0.77May 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$0.87May 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$0.87May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?$0.87May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$0.96May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?$1.10May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$1.24May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?$1.46May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?$1.44May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?$1.61May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$2.65May 13, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?$1.75May 12, 00:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 22:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.