Outlandish-Evaporation
0x774728ed9264a5ca242e8bd7952a869df318fe40
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.03
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-62.51
Win rate
5%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Paul Dennett win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
33 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.02
$-0.90
- YES
Will Laura Evans win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
33 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.02
$-0.90
- NO
Exact Score: Connah's Quay Nomads FC 0 - 0 FC Ballkani?
549 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.49
- YES
Will Oceania (OFC) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
336 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will Asia (AFC) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
336 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will North America (CONCACAF) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
336 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- NO
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 1 Operário Ferroviário EC?
320 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will Orlando Pride win on 2026-07-03?
234 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-77.94
- NO
Exact Score: Washington Spirit 2 - 1 Houston Dash?
217 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 8?
184 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-16.74
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Busan on July 29?$3.44Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 29?$0.41Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?$1.34Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?$1.70Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Any Other Score?$0.00Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 3 - 2 Liaoning Tieren FC?$0.00Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1 - 3 Liaoning Tieren FC?$0.00Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 0 - 3 Liaoning Tieren FC?$0.00Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONTianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC - Exact Score$4.06Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1 - 1 Liaoning Tieren FC?$1.12Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 0 - 0 Liaoning Tieren FC?$1.13Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 2 - 2 Liaoning Tieren FC?$1.03Jul 29, 05:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Wellington on July 29?$2.41Jul 29, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?$0.25Jul 29, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$2.13Jul 29, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 29?$0.00Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Singapore on July 29?$2.40Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$2.19Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 29?$0.00Jul 29, 05:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
55 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $0.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.