Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.7K

Realised

$672.13

Win rate

100%

37 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
857 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-57.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
825 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-277.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
660 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-252.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
603 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-350.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
547 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-261.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
490 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-203.00
YES
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
488 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$280.60Jul 10, 00:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$256.79Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.91Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$208.08Jul 10, 00:07 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$302.84Jul 10, 00:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$43.10Jul 10, 00:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$258.52Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$24.94Jul 9, 23:57 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$9.08Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$330.44Jul 9, 20:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$310.08Jul 9, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$124.73Jul 9, 20:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$123.90Jul 9, 20:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$102.32Jul 9, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$35.63Jul 9, 19:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$137.39Jul 9, 19:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$122.13Jul 9, 19:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$21.12Jul 9, 19:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$147.65Jul 9, 19:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$100.87Jul 9, 19:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

78/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 37 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

37 closed markets, 100% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry46 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $132.66
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 10:45 UTC
Last active: Jul 10, 00:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 37 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:01:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data