Wallet digest

active

Activity score

82/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$2.8K

Total PnL

$-179.61

Realised

$18.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 16

NO
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
1500 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027
$1.5K
$-6.75
NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
400 shares @ 86.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$370.00
$26.00
YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
462 shares @ 58.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$256.41
$-11.55
NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
215 shares @ 91.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$203.07
$5.91
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
233 shares @ 78.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$155.27
$-26.85
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
133 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$105.73
$-0.67
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
122 shares @ 90.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$101.26
$-8.54
NO
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
57 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$53.30
$1.42
NO
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?
53 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$50.09
$1.32
NO
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$39.17
$0.30

Recent activity

YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity55 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry6 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk71 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 11
Avg trade size: $197.78
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:48:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data