0x779f211e0de2b4d45fbf8ff592d7b68b29a6d18f
0x779f211e0de2b4d45fbf8ff592d7b68b29a6d18f
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$547.83
Total PnL
$-7.93
Realised
$-4.97
Win rate
44%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- NO
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
15 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$15.46
$0.46
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 17?
12 shares @ 90.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$12.30
$1.18
- YES
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
12 shares @ 85.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$11.70
$1.70
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 88.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$11.34
$1.34
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 17?
11 shares @ 89.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$11.29
$1.19
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$10.75
$0.65
- RAFAEL JODAR
Miami Open, Qualification: Rafael Jodar vs Manoj Dhamne Manas
11 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$10.68
$0.35
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$10.58
$0.53
- VENEZUELA
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$10.53
$0.53
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$10.49
$0.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5?$5.02Mar 30, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on March 31?$5.02Mar 30, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 30?$5.03Mar 30, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 30?$5.00Mar 30, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?$5.00Mar 30, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 30?$4.75Mar 30, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 4?$2.89Mar 30, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 1?$5.00Mar 30, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 4?$2.11Mar 30, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 31?$5.14Mar 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $85-$90 in March?$5.19Mar 28, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30?$1.24Mar 28, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30?$3.98Mar 28, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$5.40Mar 28, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 29?$5.61Mar 28, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?$3.99Mar 28, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?$1.26Mar 28, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$5.19Mar 28, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by March 31?$10.27Mar 27, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by March 31?$10.21Mar 27, 03:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 03:33 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 10:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.