Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.5K

Realised

$-239.59

Win rate

60 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 60

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
1359 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
YES
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
1282 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-500.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
1168 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-290.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
942 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
834 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026
$0.00
$-150.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
740 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026
$0.00
$-230.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
483 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026
$0.00
$-219.86
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
435 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
421 shares @ 59.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-250.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
352 shares @ 56.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Aug 4, 13:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.73Aug 4, 13:11 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.28Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$114.78Aug 3, 12:07 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$33.92Aug 3, 12:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$9.13Aug 3, 12:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$205.57Aug 3, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$102.94Aug 3, 12:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$101.40Aug 3, 12:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$33.91Aug 3, 12:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$51.43Aug 3, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$51.71Aug 3, 12:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$0.37Aug 3, 11:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$10.67Aug 3, 11:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$52.27Aug 3, 11:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 11:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$158.89Aug 3, 11:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$50.99Aug 3, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$51.54Aug 3, 11:50 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$186.89Aug 3, 11:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 60 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

60 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $78.32
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 2, 18:57 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 13:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 60 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:50:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data