Optimistic-Disposal
0x77c91b51e237120038216e2c2bc1b86e804ae0ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$295.97
Total PnL
$294.08
Realised
$316.25
Win rate
84%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
56 shares @ 85.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.27
$-0.32
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
97 shares @ 43.7¢·now 40.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$39.16
$-3.12
- YES
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
100 shares @ 32.9¢·now 32.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.86
$-0.88
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
132 shares @ 22.0¢·now 18.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.81
$-4.11
- NO
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
40 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.80
$-0.80
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
137 shares @ 15.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.78
$-5.86
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
40 shares @ 43.6¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$13.89
$-3.68
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
16 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.84
$-0.08
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
42 shares @ 31.5¢·now 30.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.95
$-0.39
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?
20 shares @ 60.2¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.90
$0.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$0.67Jun 19, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.50Jun 19, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.40Jun 19, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$0.67Jun 19, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$0.67Jun 19, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$4.50Jun 19, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$0.67Jun 19, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$2.00Jun 19, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$2.20Jun 19, 19:33 UTC
- MERGEWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$0.26Jun 19, 19:14 UTC
- MERGEFed rate hike in 2026?$13.42Jun 19, 19:14 UTC
- MERGEWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$69.99Jun 19, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$0.23Jun 19, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$8.72Jun 19, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$19.11Jun 19, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$24.25Jun 19, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$24.25Jun 19, 19:02 UTC
- MERGEFed rate hike in 2026?$64.45Jun 19, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$6.20Jun 19, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$22.70Jun 19, 17:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $7.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 19:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.