Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.5K

Realised

$316.64

Win rate

84%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
767 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-70.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
500 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-35.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
500 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
402 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
391 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
345 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
284 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-110.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
264 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$10.39Jul 13, 11:40 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$35.91Jul 13, 11:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$15.67Jul 13, 11:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$21.26Jun 22, 11:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$15.56Jun 10, 11:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$23.23Jun 10, 11:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$20.94Jun 10, 11:42 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$23.44Jun 10, 11:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$20.85Jun 10, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$20.53Jun 10, 11:39 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$25.17Jun 10, 11:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$15.64Jun 10, 11:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$27.85Jun 10, 11:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$16.87Jun 10, 11:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$32.97Jun 10, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$25.44Jun 10, 11:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$15.83Jun 10, 11:27 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$44.31Jun 10, 11:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$26.49Jun 10, 11:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$21.36Jun 9, 12:19 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

46/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

84% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $30.53
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 7, 21:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 11:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:28:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data