Wallet digest

active

Activity score

46/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$38.00

Total PnL

$-550.86

Realised

$-107.06

Win rate

15 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
7 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$7.00
$3.43
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$6.00
$2.82
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
5 shares @ 44.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$5.00
$2.79
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$5.00
$2.45
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
5 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025
$5.00
$2.65
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$5.00
$2.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$5.00
$2.50
UP
Solana Up or Down - December 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
92 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-3.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
78 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025
$0.00
$-0.23
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
67 shares @ 24.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-16.35

Recent activity

REDEEMXRP Up or Down - December 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$12.00Dec 27, 03:41 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.74Dec 27, 01:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.74Dec 27, 01:43 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.62Dec 27, 01:41 UTC
TRADEBUYRaptors vs. Wizards$1.20Dec 27, 01:38 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.74Dec 27, 01:37 UTC
TRADEBUYHeat vs. Hawks: O/U 249.5$0.76Dec 27, 01:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.58Dec 27, 01:34 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:32 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:27 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:25 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:23 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.76Dec 27, 01:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.59Dec 27, 01:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.44Dec 27, 01:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Hawks (-3.5)$1.98Dec 27, 01:13 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.24Dec 26, 22:14 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.24Dec 26, 22:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$0.21Dec 26, 21:59 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 15 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence50 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $0.88
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Dec 26, 14:42 UTC
Last active: Dec 27, 03:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 15 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:12:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data