Vast-Churn
0x78c0424efd17800840b7d24cb8c08ed754ae945e
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$12.73
Total PnL
$-29.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
1 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.03
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?$1.00Jan 15, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?$1.00Jan 11, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother US strike on Venezuela on January 8?$1.00Jan 4, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMThailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?$1.00Dec 26, 06:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?$1.01Dec 26, 06:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$1.11Dec 26, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?$1.00Dec 26, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYThailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?$1.00Dec 15, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$1.00Dec 11, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 4?$1.00Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 7?$1.00Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?$1.00Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 3?$1.01Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$1.01Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1.04Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?$1.05Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6?$2.00Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 10?$2.01Dec 11, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?$1.00Dec 10, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 10?$1.00Dec 9, 10:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 14, 05:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 05:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.