Severe-Somebody-Grin
0x78c250aee1621c08d17288e61478d74056f453ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$213.26
Total PnL
$93.43
Realised
$26.29
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?
100 shares @ 27.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$99.10
$72.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?
100 shares @ 3.3¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$93.39
$90.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?
29 shares @ 34.3¢·now 30.9¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 13?
101 shares @ 13.3¢·now 6.8¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$6.80
$-6.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?
104 shares @ 18.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$1.77
$-17.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 13?
103 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.46
$-27.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.30
$-7.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13?
100 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.15
$-6.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 13?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.13
$-0.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?$10.33Jul 13, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 13?$2.09Jul 13, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 13?$0.10Jul 13, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$5.83Jul 13, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$4.93Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$6.89Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$1.72Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$12.47Jul 13, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$5.97Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$2.19Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$2.20Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$2.40Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$3.65Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$8.65Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 13?$10.06Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$7.79Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$7.59Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$4.83Jul 13, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$68.40Jul 13, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?$19.59Jul 13, 05:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 03:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 06:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.