Gorgeous-Analogue-Staircase
0x78c592bd51493e169bc8e1f69be7b6299b66f623
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$24.19
Total PnL
$-424.07
Realised
$29.59
Win rate
64%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 10.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.60
$18.60
- YES
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be 5% or higher?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Feb 12, 2027$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of July?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.70
$-1.30
- NO
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?
947 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.47
$-0.47
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.40
$-1.60
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by July 31?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.30
$-1.70
- YES
Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-1.70
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?
566 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.28
- YES
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?
269 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.13
$-3.37
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of July 27 2026?$7.00Jul 29, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?$1.78Jul 29, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$3.50Jul 29, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of July 27 2026?$0.10Jul 29, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of July 27 2026?$1.38Jul 29, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$4.90Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?$8.75Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?$3.35Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 27 2026?$5.22Jul 29, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026?$6.70Jul 29, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.96Jul 29, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndiana Fever vs. PortlandFire$9.00Jul 29, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream$0.74Jul 29, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream$8.26Jul 29, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?$0.15Jul 29, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?$1.59Jul 29, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?$5.40Jul 29, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$2.75Jul 29, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.16Jul 29, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?$2.61Jul 29, 03:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 01:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.