Realistic-Centimeter
0x78d8df801c35a594eadfbbb7e9c5a84a923a4a88
Wallet digest
Activity score
28/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-563.56
Win rate
7%
180 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on April 5?
169 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-8.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on April 5?
169 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-22.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 5?
154 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-65.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on April 15?
136 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 6?
128 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-21.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 6?
128 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-31.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 6?
126 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 15?
126 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 15?
124 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 15?
120 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.98
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Dallas on April 23?$0.00Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23?$3.99Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 23?$0.16Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on April 23?$0.01Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 23?$0.02Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on April 23?$0.01Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on April 23?$0.01Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 23?$0.02Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on April 23?$0.01Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 57°F or below on April 23?$0.01Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23?$3.75Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 23?$0.02Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 23?$0.02Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 20?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 20?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 20?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 19?$8.00Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 180 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
180 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $0.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 08:49 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 09:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 180 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.