Watchful-Calculator
0x78e43579173b84cfcb4760d80a15642321ba0659
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$-18.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
3333 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.3K
$1.3K
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1205 shares @ 83.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$145.18
- YES
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
385 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$384.62
$284.62
- NO
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
39718 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.0K
- NO
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
4996 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?
3131 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
OpenAI social app in 2025?
1470 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1000.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.