Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$-25.23

Win rate

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 21

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
687 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-251.31
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
648 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-67.32
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
408 shares @ 66.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-269.96
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
316 shares @ 70.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-222.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
272 shares @ 84.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-229.28
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
216 shares @ 48.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-104.90
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
208 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-57.80
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
180 shares @ 48.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-87.84
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
144 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-41.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
136 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-12.24

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$11.02Jun 29, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$88.00Jun 28, 08:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$17.64Jun 28, 08:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$22.00Jun 28, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$12.04Jun 28, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.72Jun 28, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.50Jun 28, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$162.24Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$128.82Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$61.12Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.39Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.40Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.45Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.08Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.92Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.12Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$6.65Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.40Jun 28, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.40Jun 28, 08:34 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry48 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $21.66
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 28, 08:13 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:52:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data