Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-408.91

Realised

$-5.63

Win rate

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 21

OVER
Altmaier vs. Kovacevic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
184 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.84
OVER
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5
182 shares @ 38.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-70.59
OVER
Noskova vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
149 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-1.49
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
103 shares @ 60.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-62.81
OVER
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5
79 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-13.39
LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina
65 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-33.08
OVER 4.5
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5
49 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-24.58
UNDER
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
44 shares @ 31.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-13.98
JANICE TJEN
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally
43 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-21.13
OVER
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5
43 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-8.56

Recent activity

TRADESELLLos Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5$2.15Jun 28, 00:26 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5$2.16Jun 28, 00:26 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)$8.54Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
TRADEBUYTargu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan$0.29Jun 23, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina$33.57Jun 23, 16:43 UTC
TRADEBUYAltmaier vs. Kovacevic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5$1.89Jun 23, 15:37 UTC
TRADEBUYLexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally$21.45Jun 23, 12:28 UTC
REDEEMBaltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$58.28Jun 23, 04:31 UTC
TRADESELLDallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm$7.68Jun 23, 03:57 UTC
TRADEBUYDallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm$7.84Jun 23, 03:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$22.99Jun 23, 03:20 UTC
REDEEMPhoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever$31.08Jun 23, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5$7.00Jun 23, 01:18 UTC
TRADEBUYPhoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever$26.24Jun 23, 01:17 UTC
TRADESELLChicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5$2.14Jun 22, 23:40 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5$2.65Jun 22, 23:40 UTC
TRADESELLKansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays$26.95Jun 22, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays$30.09Jun 22, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYVillanueva vs. Villalon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5$2.50Jun 22, 20:40 UTC
REDEEMLexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane$23.42Jun 22, 13:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry57 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $18.72
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 21, 13:04 UTC
Last active: Jun 28, 00:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:19:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data