Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.01

Total PnL

$-86.45

Realised

$-1.10

Win rate

43 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 46

OVER
FK Krasnodar vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: O/U 1.5
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.01
$-1.99
NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
YES
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score
9 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?
9 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2025
$0.00
$-4.36
OVER
FK Zenit vs. FK Rodina Moskva: FK Zenit O/U 1.5
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score
6 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLFK Rostov vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 2.5$1.54Aug 15, 17:31 UTC
TRADEBUYFK Krasnodar vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: O/U 1.5$2.02Aug 15, 16:23 UTC
TRADESELLFK Krasnodar vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: Both Teams to Score$1.88Aug 15, 16:23 UTC
TRADEBUYFK Krasnodar vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: Both Teams to Score$2.05Aug 15, 16:23 UTC
TRADESELLUjpest FC Budapest vs. MTK Budapest: O/U 1.5$1.05Aug 15, 15:09 UTC
TRADESELLFC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5$1.31Aug 15, 15:09 UTC
TRADESELLWillem II Tilburg vs. NEC: O/U 3.5$1.42Aug 15, 15:09 UTC
TRADESELLZaglebie Lubin vs. WKS Slask Wroclaw: O/U 3.5$1.17Aug 15, 14:19 UTC
TRADEBUYFK Rostov vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 2.5$1.02Aug 15, 14:15 UTC
TRADEBUYWillem II Tilburg vs. NEC: O/U 3.5$1.02Aug 15, 13:47 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5$1.02Aug 15, 13:46 UTC
TRADEBUYUnion Saint-Gilloise vs. SV Zulte Waregem: O/U 1.5$1.01Aug 15, 13:45 UTC
TRADEBUYUjpest FC Budapest vs. MTK Budapest: O/U 1.5$1.01Aug 15, 12:11 UTC
TRADEBUYZaglebie Lubin vs. WKS Slask Wroclaw: O/U 3.5$1.01Aug 15, 12:04 UTC
TRADESELLFK Rodina Moskva vs. FK Akron Tolyatti: O/U 1.5$2.50Aug 15, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYPFK CSKA Moskva vs. FK Fakel Voronezh: O/U 1.5$2.02Aug 15, 09:56 UTC
TRADEBUYFK Rodina Moskva vs. FK Akron Tolyatti: O/U 1.5$2.02Aug 15, 05:28 UTC
TRADESELLKÍ vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5$1.04Aug 14, 18:47 UTC
TRADESELLViborg FF vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5$1.09Aug 14, 18:43 UTC
TRADESELLLASK Linz vs. SV Ried: LASK Linz O/U 1.5$1.51Aug 14, 17:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 43 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

43 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry80 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $1.18
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 13, 18:06 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 17:31 UTC
Win rate sample: 43 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 21:42:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data