Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-99.11

Realised

$-9.46

Win rate

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 12

NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.10
NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50
NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28?
162 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.62
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
42 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-14.85
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
40 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-11.74
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
37 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-9.60
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
31 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-8.34
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
31 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-11.19
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
31 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-7.08
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
25 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-8.48

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$1.70Jun 29, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$0.60Jun 28, 15:17 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$2.67Jun 28, 15:17 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.50Jun 28, 14:59 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.43Jun 28, 14:59 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.50Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.39Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.20Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$5.29Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.63Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$6.75Jun 28, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.35Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.21Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.42Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.03Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.61Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$5.55Jun 28, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.56Jun 28, 14:56 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.27Jun 28, 14:56 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.38Jun 28, 14:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

37/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $2.44
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 28, 14:52 UTC
Last active: Jun 29, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:08:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data