Mad-Uncertainty
0x797f5af4a4efe778f066de4aa34ed9c8cffa9095
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$15.46
Total PnL
$-2.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
2 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$1.35
$0.35
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
1 shares @ 86.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
20 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: January
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$1.00Mar 6, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?$2.00Mar 6, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?$2.03Mar 6, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$2.04Mar 6, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?$1.00Mar 6, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$11.00Jan 25, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: January$1.00Jan 25, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$2.00Jan 25, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?$2.00Jan 25, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?$1.01Jan 25, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?$1.92Jan 25, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?$5.01Jan 25, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.43Jan 25, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?$1.89Dec 16, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?$5.00Dec 16, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?$1.01Dec 16, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by November 30?$2.01Dec 16, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000?$3.02Dec 16, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by November 30?$2.00Nov 24, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000?$3.00Nov 24, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $1.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 13:04 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 6, 13:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.