Humble-Heir
0x79a1e572a685257b84e9eda52d6ebdcc7c012bfa
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$3.12
Total PnL
$-1.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
1 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $132,000 on October 15?
1600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025?$1.01Nov 23, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $132,000 on October 15?$1.60Oct 15, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$244.95Oct 15, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$245.20Oct 14, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating hit 30% before August?$1.05Oct 14, 11:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$1.06Oct 14, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?$243.75Oct 14, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?$244.00Oct 14, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?$244.27Oct 14, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?$244.52Oct 14, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Sep 23, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025?$1.00Sep 23, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 30% before August?$1.00Apr 25, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?$1.00Apr 25, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?$2.96Apr 25, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference?$1.01Apr 25, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?$3.00Mar 28, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?$1.96Mar 28, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Benfica win the UEFA Champions League?$1.01Mar 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?$1.02Mar 28, 08:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $39.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 17, 10:47 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 23, 10:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.