Clever-Millstone
0x79ae56f1c90d23843960a0085d2b403c7a69b9ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$837.74
Total PnL
$534.61
Realised
$-4.33
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?
370 shares @ 8.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$370.00
$339.80
- NO
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
160 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$160.00
$64.00
- YES
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
120 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$120.00
$63.60
- YES
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
120 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$120.00
$80.40
- YES
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?
30 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$30.00
$21.90
- YES
US government shutdown Saturday?
12 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$11.54
$5.54
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
43 shares @ 23.3¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.52
$-1.48
- YES
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
31 shares @ 12.7¢·now 14.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.56
$0.56
- YES
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
9 shares @ 45.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$3.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
23 shares @ 13.2¢·now 15.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$3.58
$0.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?$3.57Jun 20, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?$1.02Jun 20, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.17Jun 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.22Jun 15, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$2.00Jun 14, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$1.00Jun 14, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 14, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.00Jun 14, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$1.02Jun 14, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.00Jun 13, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$3.07Jun 13, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.15Jun 12, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$4.13Jun 12, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$1.00Jun 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 12, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$1.00Jun 12, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.03Jun 11, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 11, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$10.31Jun 11, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 11, 22:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 15:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 22:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.