Skeletal-Hypothesis
0x79b9f856984c6358332240c4c932756db73c7d93
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-192.04
Realised
$-67.19
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 25?
750 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-11.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 25?
215 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 24?
214 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 24?
118 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-14.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24?
118 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-13.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 25?
116 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 24?
101 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 24?
101 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-14.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?$55.60Mar 26, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 25?$83.86Mar 26, 04:46 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.41Mar 26, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 11:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 09:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$92.59Mar 25, 07:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 24?$0.00Mar 25, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$47.21Mar 25, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.17Mar 25, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.62Mar 25, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 06:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$0.00Mar 25, 06:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $9.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 06:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 04:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.