Ignorant-Verdict
0x79cf0f26f60d307a769483ad19866a905cff105a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$233.35
Realised
$438.24
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%?
473 shares @ 81.2¢·now 86.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$407.00
$22.64
- YES
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
665 shares @ 36.3¢·now 30.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$202.95
$-38.91
- YES
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
341 shares @ 49.4¢·now 46.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$157.03
$-11.65
- YES
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
195 shares @ 41.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$98.54
$17.48
- YES
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
310 shares @ 27.8¢·now 23.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$71.37
$-15.03
- YES
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
305 shares @ 22.1¢·now 21.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$64.08
$-3.32
- NO
Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10% or more?
54 shares @ 75.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$51.28
$10.53
- YES
Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
150 shares @ 32.3¢·now 33.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$49.57
$1.00
- NO
Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62 shares @ 80.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$43.71
$-6.20
- YES
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
67 shares @ 42.9¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$27.71
$-0.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$10.40Aug 17, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$1.56Aug 17, 06:01 UTC
- REWARD$4.48Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$2.20Aug 16, 19:13 UTC
- REWARD$2.95Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$2.91Aug 15, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$8.20Aug 15, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$18.00Aug 15, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$27.05Aug 15, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$56.87Aug 15, 03:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$6.42Aug 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$41.48Aug 14, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?$1.17Aug 14, 20:19 UTC
- REWARD$6.18Aug 14, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$8.20Aug 14, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$49.91Aug 14, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$9.40Aug 14, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?$14.43Aug 14, 07:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.20Aug 14, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $23.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 14:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.