Vast-Moth
0x79e78e0fccecd9e948a3dd15c4178537a6ce9c9d
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
180
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-611.87
Realised
$-5.37
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 180- YES
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?
1980 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16?
945 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?
718 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.88
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?
653 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 24?
570 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?
327 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
198 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- 1234
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage
196 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- 1234
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage
196 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$2.05Jul 7, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$2.15Jun 27, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Germany (-1.5)$2.15Jun 25, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMCuraçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5$3.26Jun 25, 22:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25?$3.35Jun 25, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25?$2.16Jun 25, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25?$2.03Jun 25, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25?$2.09Jun 25, 13:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25?$0.34Jun 25, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25?$1.66Jun 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?$3.70Jun 25, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26?$1.19Jun 25, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25?$1.60Jun 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25?$2.03Jun 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25?$1.78Jun 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?$1.14Jun 25, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27?$2.07Jun 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthletics vs. San Francisco Giants$1.95Jun 25, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?$2.05Jun 25, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?$2.04Jun 25, 03:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 16:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.