Growling-Ambulance
0x7a0d03a990598542fe18a187c22a9e944bc653f7
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$329.98
Total PnL
$-11.9K
Realised
$73.39
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
150 shares @ 61.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$75.75
$-15.75
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
646 shares @ 24.3¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$45.25
$-111.84
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$45.00
$-15.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
92 shares @ 49.6¢·now 38.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$34.82
$-10.68
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
50 shares @ 54.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$25.75
$-1.25
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
50 shares @ 36.1¢·now 42.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$21.00
$2.97
- YES
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
791 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$20.96
$-42.28
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
585 shares @ 4.5¢·now 3.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.01
$-7.23
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.00
$-4.50
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
29 shares @ 25.0¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.10
$-1.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$22.00Jul 25, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?$12.83Jul 25, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$22.06Jul 25, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$5.00Jul 25, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$8.44Jul 25, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$41.85Jul 25, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$228.92Jul 25, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$13.51Jul 25, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$21.60Jul 24, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 24, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$15.87Jul 23, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.00Jul 22, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$3.00Jul 22, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$7.10Jul 22, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$5.60Jul 22, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$15.00Jul 21, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?$15.20Jul 21, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$20.72Jul 21, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$35.64Jul 21, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$27.37Jul 21, 22:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $20.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 21:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 23:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.