Impassioned-Recipe
0x7a2947de0bdd034a2b26ecf9bef14559e8238aaa
Wallet digest
Activity score
23/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-110.63
Realised
$-28.76
Win rate
0%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$32.75Apr 13, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.00Apr 13, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$10.03Apr 13, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.00Apr 13, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$1.00Apr 13, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.00Apr 13, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$10.81Apr 9, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$0.00Apr 5, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?$0.00Apr 4, 19:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
33 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $9.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 09:11 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 13, 22:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.