0x7a8420f0543744aabc12f40ab3c426a3fe53beab
0x7a8420f0543744aabc12f40ab3c426a3fe53beab
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
131
Open notional
$19.45
Total PnL
$-134.25
Realised
$-8.00
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 131- NO
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.92
$0.92
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2 shares @ 56.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.61
$0.61
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1 shares @ 67.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.47
$0.47
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- NO
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.39
$0.39
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.39
$0.39
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.30
$0.30
- NO
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.27
$0.27
- NO
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
1 shares @ 79.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.26
$0.26
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.25
$0.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?$1.22Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.32Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$1.62Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$1.62Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.62Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$1.64Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$1.79Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$1.79Mar 11, 18:03 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$1.82Mar 11, 18:03 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.05Mar 9, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.14Mar 9, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$2.14Mar 9, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$2.14Mar 9, 06:20 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$2.19Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$2.19Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$2.30Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$2.46Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$2.67Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$2.67Mar 9, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.74Mar 9, 06:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 22:41 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 11, 18:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.