Stiff-Nightgown
0x7aedab2480df49ee3c1983ec29fc9aec742cdf39
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
197
Open notional
$10.9K
Total PnL
$1.0K
Realised
$634.24
Win rate
72%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 197- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2497 shares @ 77.1¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.1K
$160.18
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?
1049 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$980.82
$5.25
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
1130 shares @ 73.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$954.90
$122.54
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
833 shares @ 39.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$678.93
$346.28
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NC-14 House seat?
709 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$609.74
$21.27
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?
690 shares @ 81.1¢·now 81.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$559.12
$-0.56
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
727 shares @ 62.9¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$516.03
$58.81
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1107 shares @ 27.2¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$298.33
$-2.60
- NO
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
275 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$273.76
$15.26
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the LA-03 House seat?
270 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$252.45
$-1.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$90.00Jul 29, 05:21 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.52Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.31Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$7.39Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$76.00Jul 28, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?$12.70Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$24.41Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$127.58Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$114.00Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$113.47Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$142.71Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$35.01Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$31.12Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$39.13Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$102.31Jul 28, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.05Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$234.00Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$156.00Jul 28, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$91.08Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
50 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $92.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.