Crooked-Insurance
0x7b0f665e3afff182b65d04fac98ee4e11249145c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$80.87
Total PnL
$222.82
Realised
$249.74
Win rate
100%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
291 shares @ 1.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.01
$4.32
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
220 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.49
$0.04
- YES
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
660 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$4.62
$-0.22
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
753 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.14
$0.55
- YES
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
180 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.05
$0.85
- YES
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
993 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.47
$-1.76
- YES
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?
1378 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.45
$-3.68
- YES
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026?
1270 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.17
$-3.91
- YES
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
2056 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.08
$-2.38
- YES
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
600 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.00
$0.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.06Jul 29, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$0.20Jul 29, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$0.99Jul 29, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?$0.06Jul 29, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.01Jul 29, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.08Jul 29, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$0.01Jul 29, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.01Jul 29, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.01Jul 29, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
38 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 07:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.