Joint-Screwdriver
0x7bbf09fc724e3ca90332e17d4f352b3cbc0f7ce5
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$130.92
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$-1.0K
Win rate
6%
86 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
708 shares @ 5.9¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.27
$-31.25
- YES
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2620 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.17
$-11.30
- YES
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2740 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.11
$-17.29
- YES
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2740 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.11
$-17.29
- YES
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2740 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.11
$-17.29
- YES
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2690 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.03
$-16.98
- YES
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1600 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.00
$-8.50
- YES
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2620 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.93
$-16.54
- YES
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2620 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.93
$-16.54
- YES
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2620 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.93
$-16.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMGame Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)$60.00Jul 30, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on July 31?$0.83Jul 30, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner$12.00Jul 30, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$13.68Jul 30, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season$2.66Jul 30, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$1.95Jul 30, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?$1.00Jul 30, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?$1.00Jul 30, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 31?$1.80Jul 30, 14:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 31?$1.60Jul 30, 14:41 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in San Francisco on July 31?$0.00Jul 30, 14:40 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 31?$20.00Jul 30, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$8.64Jul 30, 14:35 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?$0.00Jul 30, 14:35 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 1?$20.00Jul 30, 14:35 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 1?$0.00Jul 30, 14:34 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 1?$20.00Jul 30, 14:34 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in San Francisco on July 31?$0.00Jul 30, 14:33 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 31?$20.00Jul 30, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawhi play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?$0.49Jul 30, 14:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 86 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
86 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $3.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 13:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 14:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 86 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.