Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.7K

Realised

$-56.76

Win rate

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

OVER
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
943 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-502.97
OVER
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
940 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-455.32
UNDER
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5
817 shares @ 43.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-358.16
UNDER
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
682 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-306.81
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
429 shares @ 47.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-203.04
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
429 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-46.52
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
429 shares @ 62.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-268.14
UNDER
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
419 shares @ 89.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-374.24
ATLANTA BRAVES
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
377 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026
$0.00
$-203.77
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
367 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-201.81

Recent activity

REDEEMKansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5$192.30Jul 11, 01:42 UTC
REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5$1.2KJul 11, 01:04 UTC
TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5$409.40Jul 10, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5$422.42Jul 10, 17:05 UTC
TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5$105.31Jul 10, 16:46 UTC
TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5$105.19Jul 10, 15:47 UTC
TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5$104.31Jul 10, 15:47 UTC
REDEEMMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$109.89Jul 10, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$20.77Jul 10, 01:49 UTC
TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$100.06Jul 10, 01:49 UTC
TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres$103.16Jul 10, 01:49 UTC
TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres$101.38Jul 10, 01:44 UTC
TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5$309.59Jul 9, 23:42 UTC
TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5$2.29Jul 9, 23:21 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.26Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
REDEEMArizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres$624.99Jul 9, 05:25 UTC
REDEEMColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5$106.38Jul 9, 04:52 UTC
REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5$94.33Jul 9, 02:38 UTC
TRADESELLHouston Astros vs. Washington Nationals$876.13Jul 9, 00:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $131.79
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 04:11 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 01:42 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:06:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data