Determined-Chaos
0x7c9d38697bc3f83e099cd3bc27041cba27d7558b
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$191.89
Total PnL
$-6.13
Realised
$35.23
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 30?
55 shares @ 35.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$54.97
$35.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?
35 shares @ 63.6¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.43
$-2.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 31?
25 shares @ 59.6¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.88
$-0.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?
11 shares @ 59.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$11.18
$4.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?
10 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$9.99
$5.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 30?
10 shares @ 18.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$9.99
$8.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 31?
10 shares @ 85.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.85
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?
8 shares @ 69.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$7.71
$2.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?
7 shares @ 83.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$6.53
$0.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 75.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.31
$1.28
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Lucknow on July 31?$4.00Jul 30, 04:57 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Chengdu on July 30?$5.00Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$5.00Jul 30, 04:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?$5.00Jul 30, 04:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?$5.00Jul 30, 04:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?$10.00Jul 30, 04:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?$15.00Jul 30, 04:50 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Qingdao on July 30?$2.40Jul 30, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?$4.00Jul 30, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 30?$2.75Jul 30, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 30?$0.20Jul 30, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?$4.40Jul 30, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 30?$0.85Jul 30, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 30?$0.45Jul 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 30?$0.50Jul 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?$0.50Jul 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$3.55Jul 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 30?$0.80Jul 30, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?$1.00Jul 30, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?$0.31Jul 30, 04:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 04:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 04:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.