Wallet digest

active

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-700.53

Realised

$-32.49

Win rate

14%

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 45

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 5AM ET
577 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026
$0.00
$-288.50
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET
323 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-161.50
OVER
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5
22 shares @ 52.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-11.41
OVER
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5
20 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-7.78
UNDER
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5
16 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-8.15
UNDER
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5
16 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-8.48
UNDER
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
16 shares @ 52.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026
$0.00
$-8.30
UNDER
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
16 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.99
UNDER
Blues vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
15 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-8.10
UNDER
Moutet vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5
15 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-7.90

Recent activity

REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$9.00Jul 5, 04:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$4.48Jul 4, 04:43 UTC
REDEEMDuckworth/Kecmanovic vs. Bonzi/Rinderknech: Match O/U 21.5$3.80Jul 3, 10:24 UTC
TRADEBUYMinaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 36.5$4.93Jul 2, 06:23 UTC
TRADEBUYDuckworth/Kecmanovic vs. Bonzi/Rinderknech: Match O/U 21.5$3.60Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
TRADEBUYDuckworth/Kecmanovic vs. Bonzi/Rinderknech: Match O/U 21.5$0.20Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
REDEEMITF Elvas: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Kira Pavlova$9.30Jun 30, 10:45 UTC
TRADEBUYITF Elvas: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Kira Pavlova$4.91Jun 30, 05:05 UTC
REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5$9.90Jun 30, 01:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5$0.36Jun 29, 02:49 UTC
TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5$3.59Jun 29, 02:49 UTC
TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5$1.20Jun 29, 02:49 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals$8.60Jun 28, 19:01 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals$0.40Jun 28, 06:01 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals$3.90Jun 28, 06:01 UTC
REDEEMMuchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5$4.25Jun 27, 10:38 UTC
TRADEBUYMuchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5$4.31Jun 27, 03:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBalshaw vs. Nedic: Match O/U 21.5$2.35Jun 26, 02:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBalshaw vs. Nedic: Match O/U 21.5$1.52Jun 26, 02:40 UTC
REDEEMSantamarta vs. Milic: Match O/U 21.5$7.90Jun 25, 10:02 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

14% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry96 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $3.24
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 5, 07:29 UTC
Last active: Jul 5, 04:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 10:00:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data