Thorough-Paranoia
0x7cbdba1a5833baa3ec8c107c19c8b7d2d80f3a8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
148
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-398.48
Realised
$62.22
Win rate
85%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 148- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
2350 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.55
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 21?
1224 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
506 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
504 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US strikes Yemen by December 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
337 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
335 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$3.62Jun 15, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$3.04Jun 13, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12?$4.02Jun 13, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12?$2.32Jun 12, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.74Jun 6, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.83Jun 6, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$4.12Jun 6, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 6, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$5.02Jun 6, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$2.70Jun 6, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.25Jun 5, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$4.77Jun 5, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4?$7.94Jun 4, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4?$5.15Jun 4, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3?$5.94Jun 4, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3?$4.57Jun 4, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?$3.66Jun 4, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,950 on June 2?$5.17Jun 2, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31?$4.11Jun 1, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$5.14Jun 1, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 23:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 00:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.