Flamboyant-Leader
0x7cd0f7bdf3f9dca125c416518dcbaadae486872d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
132
Open notional
$91.17
Total PnL
$-379.56
Realised
$-135.92
Win rate
0%
132 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 132- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 14?
17 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$16.90
$4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16?
11 shares @ 18.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$10.85
$8.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$10.00
$8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?
8 shares @ 25.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$7.72
$5.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$7.69
$5.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 13?
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$6.90
$4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?
7 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$6.67
$4.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$6.25
$4.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15?
6 shares @ 36.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$5.54
$3.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?
5 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$4.65
$2.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 16?$2.06May 14, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on May 15?$2.09May 14, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16?$2.08May 14, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15?$2.06May 14, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?$2.07May 14, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?$2.06May 14, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16?$2.08May 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?$2.07May 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15?$2.05May 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 16?$2.08May 14, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 15?$2.10May 14, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?$2.09May 14, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?$2.07May 14, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16?$2.05May 14, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?$2.07May 14, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?$2.07May 14, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?$2.51May 13, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 12?$5.00May 13, 00:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11?$5.00May 13, 00:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?$5.13May 13, 00:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 132 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
132 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 14:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 132 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.