Grounded-Rethinking
0x7cd2f2e87395e8be53a7a006caf09baad9603079
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$579.29
Total PnL
$8.2K
Realised
$20.6K
Win rate
75%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
341 shares @ 58.3¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$189.17
$-9.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET
248 shares @ 58.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$150.17
$4.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
304 shares @ 41.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$135.43
$8.08
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET
265 shares @ 45.4¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$104.52
$-15.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
921 shares @ 65.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-605.11
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
404 shares @ 62.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-252.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
359 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-118.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
337 shares @ 45.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-154.37
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
332 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-37.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
296 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-82.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$21.30Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$21.60Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$0.54Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$5.30Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$8.40Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$2.26Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$8.40Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$19.80Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$20.10Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$19.50Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.95Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$2.14Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$11.36Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$15.00Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$15.30Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$14.40Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$14.70Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$3.33Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$11.37Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$14.70Jul 21, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
193 closed markets, 75% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 18:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.