Delirious-Obedience
0x7cf4b879e2668132770d8410404866d995627389
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$8.18
Total PnL
$-3.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.13
$0.04
- NO
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.39
$0.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.33
$0.01
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.24
$0.24
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.07
$0.02
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?
3 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.61
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.19
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?$1.04Jul 15, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?$1.04Jul 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?$1.03Jul 10, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?$1.04Jul 10, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 6?$1.36Jul 6, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 6?$1.36Jul 5, 08:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$1.17Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $558,000 and $562,000 on June 30?$1.16Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $558,000 and $562,000 on June 30?$1.16Jun 29, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$1.16Jun 29, 03:03 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.36Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.31Jun 19, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.36Jun 14, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.28Jun 14, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026?$2.09May 30, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$1.05May 9, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.02Apr 28, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYKaroline Leavitt out by March 31?$1.39Mar 29, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMMiami (OH) vs. Western Michigan$2.56Dec 30, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia in 2025?$1.32Dec 30, 07:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $8.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 06:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 06:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.