Thorny-Marmalade
0x7d0d2e304ffe9444c754844a600848f6a08b1dc7
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$26.33
Total PnL
$-4.12
Realised
$-0.57
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?
10 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$10.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Derek Cianfrance win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
4 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$4.37
$0.01
- YES
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
4 shares @ 89.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.80
$-0.20
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?
3 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$3.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.53
$0.01
- NO
Netanyahu out by 2025?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.28
$0.28
- NO
James Comey in jail in 2025?
1 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Trump" 20+ times during next White House press briefing?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Derek Cianfrance win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$279.16Nov 20, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?$4.00Nov 18, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?$3.00Nov 18, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Derek Cianfrance win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$283.80Nov 18, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$292.69Nov 18, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$295.50Nov 18, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election?$3.00Nov 18, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?$10.00Nov 18, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$1.01Nov 18, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Concentrix (CNXC) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$1.01Nov 18, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon SBF by September 30?$2.01Nov 18, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Concentrix (CNXC) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$1.00Sep 26, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$1.00Sep 26, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by September 30?$2.00Sep 26, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYJames Comey in jail in 2025?$1.00Sep 26, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Trump" 20+ times during next White House press briefing?$1.00Sep 26, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Turkey military clash in 2025?$1.06Sep 26, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?$1.04Sep 26, 09:40 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. forces in Gaza before July?$1.04Sep 26, 09:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Turkey leave NATO by June 30?$1.04Sep 26, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $36.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 6, 03:55 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 20, 06:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".