Detailed-Agreement
0x7d1c6e024f99172db4012e899fcf32148e5f79db
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$35.41
Total PnL
$-56.59
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?
35 shares @ 84.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$35.41
$5.41
- YES
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
11 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
11 shares @ 89.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?
11 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Gold Medal" or "Gold Medallist" this week? (February 22)
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Winter Olympic" or "Winter Olympics" this week? (February 22)
10 shares @ 51.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will "Iran" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?$5.45May 2, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?$5.53May 2, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "Transgender" on Truth Social this week?$10.61May 2, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$22.22May 2, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?$30.53May 2, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?$5.00Apr 26, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?$5.00Apr 26, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?$1.00Apr 26, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?$30.00Apr 26, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?$5.00Apr 26, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$20.00Apr 26, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Transgender" on Truth Social this week?$10.00Apr 26, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House press briefing?$6.02Apr 14, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House press briefing?$8.06Apr 14, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?$20.00Apr 6, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?$10.00Apr 6, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House press briefing?$5.00Apr 6, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House press briefing?$5.00Apr 6, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$0.00Apr 6, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?$5.88Apr 6, 07:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $9.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 16:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 06:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.