Heavy-Miss
0x7d51124c4ee095428b2291a32c72e8181aefc019
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$552.87
Total PnL
$285.44
Realised
$145.90
Win rate
100%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Chevron (CVX) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.1M?
140 shares @ 66.4¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$110.55
$17.62
- YES
Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5%-8.5%?
181 shares @ 10.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$70.68
$52.53
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Cloud revenue be above $59.5B?
102 shares @ 34.7¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$46.75
$11.48
- YES
Mastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 12.5%+?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 37.3¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$37.25
$21.25
- YES
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?
99 shares @ 10.9¢·now 33.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$33.15
$22.32
- YES
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?
35 shares @ 28.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$23.98
$14.18
- YES
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?
42 shares @ 11.9¢·now 48.5¢·exp Feb 12, 2027$20.23
$15.28
- YES
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?
99 shares @ 17.5¢·now 19.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.81
$1.48
- YES
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in June?
88 shares @ 2.5¢·now 19.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$16.79
$14.58
- YES
Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?
59 shares @ 8.0¢·now 27.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.06
$11.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAmphenol (APH) Q2 organic sales growth 40%+?$1.23Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAmphenol (APH) Q2 organic sales growth 36%-40%?$8.73Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 6.5%-8%?$0.00Jul 28, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?$24.68Jul 28, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYMastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 12.5%+?$16.54Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?$11.65Jul 27, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30?$6.08Jul 27, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?$14.68Jul 27, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLVisa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) <7.5%?$2.40Jul 27, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?$13.80Jul 27, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYVisa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?$15.30Jul 26, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?$0.20Jul 26, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?$0.40Jul 26, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?$0.46Jul 26, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?$0.09Jul 26, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?$0.63Jul 25, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?$14.10Jul 24, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Cloud revenue be above $59B?$0.34Jul 24, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill American Express (AXP) Q2 total revenue net of interest expense be above $19.75B?$0.00Jul 24, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?$0.00Jul 24, 13:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.