Only-Reduction
0x7d81681b4428796141a4c61e6b5d8aa3fa41259b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-9.47
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 4?
300 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-246.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?
300 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-209.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7AM ET
205 shares @ 97.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 9?
177 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?
159 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?
144 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 10?
117 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?
108 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?
88 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?
80 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?$10.82Aug 20, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?$30.46Aug 20, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$11.93Aug 19, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$10.77Aug 19, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$1.00Aug 19, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$15.00Aug 19, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$11.51Aug 19, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$4.97Aug 19, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?$50.25Aug 19, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?$99.82Aug 18, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?$8.79Aug 18, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?$30.33Aug 18, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?$51.87Aug 18, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?$89.21Aug 17, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?$20.23Aug 17, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?$95.70Aug 17, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?$17.97Aug 16, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?$19.50Aug 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?$7.80Aug 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?$0.09Aug 16, 16:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $26.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 06:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 14:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.