Creamy-Poll
0x7da58d38f3cecec4a8016674afa775e7c3a95b2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
32
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-0.24
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19?
4637 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-24.24
- NEW ZEALAND
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1)
833 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-199.24
- AUSTRALIA
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1)
725 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-199.27
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
624 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-68.92
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
435 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-195.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
430 shares @ 31.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-135.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
404 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-50.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
381 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-48.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
350 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.39
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
327 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-98.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$121.93Mar 13, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$273.37Feb 28, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$267.59Feb 28, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$100.00Feb 28, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$9.54Feb 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$50.00Feb 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$153.01Feb 28, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$50.00Feb 28, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$155.82Feb 28, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$80.00Feb 28, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$79.19Feb 28, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$84.00Feb 28, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$83.92Feb 28, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$69.00Feb 28, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$219.89Feb 28, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$40.65Feb 28, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$87.00Feb 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$127.65Feb 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$100.88Feb 28, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$55.00Feb 28, 10:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $83.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 1, 05:54 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 14:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.