Lean-Rationale
0x7db81025ea2b4705fd0396512fed79c117868353
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$91.47
Total PnL
$-244.09
Realised
$-3.44
Win rate
1%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will Solana reach $80 on August 17?
45 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$43.92
$0.72
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 17?
18 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$17.95
$0.49
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on August 17?
18 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$17.91
$0.27
- NO
Will XRP reach $1.05 on August 17?
11 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$10.71
$-0.07
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
4 shares @ 51.9¢·now 25.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.98
$-1.02
- T1
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI
182 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-89.39
- YES
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?
65 shares @ 51.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-33.14
- FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli
8 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will France win on 2026-06-30?
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- UNDER
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5
8 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on August 17?$17.64Aug 17, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.05 on August 17?$10.78Aug 17, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $80 on August 17?$43.32Aug 17, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 17?$17.46Aug 17, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 16?$27.00Aug 17, 04:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 10-16?$11.00Aug 17, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 16?$11.00Aug 17, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 16?$10.67Aug 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 16?$26.35Aug 16, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 10-16?$10.66Aug 15, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 14?$0.00Aug 15, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 14?$0.00Aug 15, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 14?$0.00Aug 15, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 14?$27.00Aug 15, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 14?$11.00Aug 15, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 14?$11.00Aug 15, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 14?$10.78Aug 14, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 14?$10.67Aug 14, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 14?$15.63Aug 14, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 14?$10.78Aug 14, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
73 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $21.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 04:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 17:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.