Heavy-Gentleman
0x7e01fb9dece74b0031696fe104fbcce421cc63be
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$44.8K
Total PnL
$3.5K
Realised
$152.12
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
4275 shares @ 65.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$3.7K
$932.43
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
4000 shares @ 77.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.5K
$353.93
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
3300 shares @ 76.0¢·now 94.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.1K
$613.80
- NO
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026?
3000 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$313.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 81.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.6K
$173.85
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
3000 shares @ 83.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$48.77
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
3708 shares @ 73.7¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$-339.26
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
2700 shares @ 62.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$670.50
- NO
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
2159 shares @ 7.7¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$1.8K
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
2000 shares @ 75.9¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$1.9K
$341.04
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.24Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.47Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.90Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$0.76Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- REWARD$8.80Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 21, 17:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$10.00Jul 20, 22:12 UTC
- REWARD$10.82Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$100.00Jul 19, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$4.20Jul 19, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$5.00Jul 19, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 19, 01:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $64.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.