Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-62.79

Realised

$1.17

Win rate

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 16

DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET
377 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Austria to score first vs. Jordan?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
France to score first vs. Senegal?
16 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$5.05Jun 18, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$5.00Jun 18, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$4.78Jun 18, 13:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$4.17Jun 18, 13:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$3.09Jun 18, 13:53 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.22Jun 17, 18:23 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.85Jun 17, 18:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.25Jun 17, 18:22 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$8.23Jun 17, 18:21 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$4.23Jun 17, 18:21 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$5.28Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$8.44Jun 17, 18:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$5.20Jun 17, 18:10 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.53Jun 17, 18:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$3.61Jun 17, 18:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.23Jun 17, 18:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$3.07Jun 17, 18:00 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$3.46Jun 17, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.06Jun 17, 17:55 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$6.75Jun 17, 17:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 43
Avg trade size: $3.49
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 16, 12:45 UTC
Last active: Jun 18, 14:03 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:57:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data