Elliptical-Perspective
0x7f1d4b950c6392650713252cebac3293d5f745dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$4.0K
Total PnL
$167.86
Realised
$59.70
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
GTA VI released before November 2026?
594 shares @ 90.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$576.32
$38.75
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
390 shares @ 96.4¢·now 95.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$373.75
$-2.15
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
350 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$336.87
$0.24
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
300 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$289.80
$1.53
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
298 shares @ 92.6¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$287.26
$11.66
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
290 shares @ 97.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$282.89
$1.62
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
253 shares @ 90.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$228.83
$-0.32
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 83.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.25
$16.43
- NO
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
191 shares @ 96.1¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$187.66
$4.08
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
200 shares @ 87.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$187.01
$12.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$13.65Jul 23, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$19.08Jul 23, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$19.14Jul 23, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$9.59Jul 23, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?$45.00Jul 23, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$9.60Jul 23, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?$36.00Jul 23, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$1.75Jul 23, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?$9.00Jul 22, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?$45.50Jul 22, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$29.07Jul 22, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$14.41Jul 22, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$19.24Jul 22, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$24.25Jul 22, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jonas Vingegaard finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$400.48Jul 22, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$71.25Jul 21, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$450.00Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$48.00Jul 21, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$19.22Jul 21, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$9.62Jul 21, 19:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $20.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 06:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.