Wallet digest

active

Activity score

57/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.3K

Realised

$-64.77

Win rate

67%

30 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
829 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-10.22
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
761 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026
$0.00
$-37.26
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
734 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-52.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
706 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-35.40
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
673 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-29.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
640 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026
$0.00
$-229.52
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
583 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-22.35
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
475 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-38.29
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
431 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-70.48
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
422 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026
$0.00
$-191.16

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$6.18Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.70Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.52Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.94Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.95Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.30Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.88Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.76Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.28Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.01Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.04Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.87Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.46Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$12.02Jun 10, 16:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$36.67Jun 10, 16:22 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$2.20Jun 10, 16:20 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.01Jun 10, 16:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$2.44Jun 10, 16:17 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$6.71Jun 10, 16:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 30 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

30 closed markets, 67% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $9.02
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 10, 15:47 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 30 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:05:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data