Agonizing-Gateway
0x7f420154788b942f2c8b51bc20a78b8586662af2
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-445.18
Realised
$140.89
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days?
1119 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-53.36
- YES
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
598 shares @ 68.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-407.91
- YES
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?
509 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-71.30
- YES
Will Trump visit Russia in first 100 days?
300 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-53.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$288.00Mar 7, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$219.00Mar 1, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$96.80Feb 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$38.57Feb 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$26.60Feb 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$27.87Feb 28, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?$119.10Feb 28, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?$305.00Feb 28, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?$0.00Apr 1, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$0.00Apr 1, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?$10.64Apr 1, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?$35.01Apr 1, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?$190.00Apr 1, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?$103.00Mar 14, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?$0.00Feb 27, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill AfD win the most seats in the next German election?$500.00Feb 27, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Union win the most seats in the next German election?$856.67Feb 27, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?$163.75Feb 26, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Keir Starmer in his first 100 days?$245.27Feb 25, 11:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Keir Starmer in his first 100 days?$9.02Feb 24, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $38.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 20, 06:12 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.